By-Elections, By the Numbers

Yesterday's four federal by-elections produced mixed results across the board, but there are several prevailing themes to be noted here. The Liberals easily won, as expected, in Toronto Centre and Willowdale giving Bob Rae (more on him later) and Martha Hall-Findlay, respectively, their seats in the House of Commons. In Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River (DMCR), a geographically huge riding in northern Saskatchewan, Conservative Rob Clarke trounced a Dion appointee, Joan Beatty, by just over 1700 votes after Liberal internal polling saw the riding as a 'tie'. They may want to check those numbers again. As for Vancouver-Quadra, a traditional Liberal stronghold in its own right, the Liberal candidate, Joyce Murray, beat Conservative Deborah Meredith by only 151 votes. A win is a win, but when the Liberal candidate won in the last general election by over 12000 votes, this by-election win seems a bit hollow. The gains made by the Conservatives in this affluent, multi-cultural, urban riding show the party's growing strength amongst Canadians who want lower taxes, a cleaner environment, and a strong government in Ottawa.

The raw numbers for headlines are that the Liberals won three seats and the Conservatives won one. If you go inside the numbers, however, several facts present themselves:

1) The Liberals held all four of these seats before last night and emerged only holding three so they did in fact lose a seat in the House.
2) Two of the Liberal wins were by star candidates in stronghold ridings. Anything less than a 40% Liberal share of the vote would be unacceptable. Indeed, both candidates were above 60%.
3) Stephane Dion is still winless with handpicked candidates running in by-elections. As was the case in Outremont last fall, Dion's strategy fell flat with opposition from both inside the Liberal party and, of course, the good voters of DMCR. His judgment ought to be called into question by the party as he has cost the Liberals precious seats in Opposition.
4) Sticking with Stephane, now that Bob Rae is in caucus, Dion will be surrounded by ambitious, if not hawkish, colleagues who want his job. If Dion cannot rally party support and start to make some serious gains in the House or in by-elections to come, he may find himself out of the leadership before the next general election.
5) Finally, briefly, the NDP performed miserably in all four by-elections and, in fact, was locked in tight races with the Green Party in the urban ridings. The party that once was on the fringe of Canadian politics has indeed arrived and will chip votes away from the NDP in future elections. A welcomed sight for those who want to see fewer NDPers in the House. Not bad for a "nuisance" party, as Hamilton Mountain's NDP MP calls them (yes, Chris Charlton actually said that).

Stephane Dion called yesterday a "great day for Liberals". He couldn't be more wrong. Yesterday was a great day for Bob Rae, who can now keep a watchful eye on Dion in the House and plot another leadership run. It was also a great day for Conservatives as they gained a seat, but also put the Liberals on notice in Vancouver-Quadra and I would expect that, given the strong result, Deborah Meredith will be back for another shot at it in the next election because she will probably win. If winning two seats that your party was expected to take and barely squeaking out a victory in another is a "great day", the Liberals have obviously peaked and have nowhere to go but down.

Another sobering note for the Liberals, despite their wins yesterday, is that the Conservative Party is showing consistent strength with the voters and recent controversies have done little to break the government's momentum. Today's Globe and Mail/Strategic Council Poll shows the Conservatives with 38% support and the Liberals at 27%. If an election were held today, the Conservatives would be very close to winning a majority government, something that Canada needs during the current economic uncertainty. Yesterday's by-elections may embolden Stephane Dion to topple the government, but he should think twice, and maybe three times, before making that move. The hollow Liberal victories will not carry over to a general election.